Your World Utterly Changed

Contemplations on the Market and the Economy
in a Time of
Profound Crisis

 

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The Current Financial Crisis Was Inevitable -And I Predicted It

In 1995 I began to post to email subscribers and occasionally to a web site outlining my thoughts on the markets and the economy. Over the years I made the following comments (see more of my greatest hits here):

(1995) The period from 1981 until the end of this financial cycle will be characterized by disinflation and deflation

(1995) The US dollar will fall to lows not seen in over 60 years, which, when combined with unprecedented levels of debt in all parts of the economy, will lead to significant reductions in standards of living

(1998) We are in a mania. Manias have no limits, but manias always end badly.

(2000) The end of the bear market in stocks will occur in the period from 2010 - 2012, and at around either 3800 or 1000 (and potentially below 1000) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

(January 2008, with the DJIA at 13000) The DJIA will fall below 11600 and we will be lucky if prices for this first leg down stop above 7000

(2008) The current financial crisis will be as severe or more severe than that of  the great depression

(2009) The Obama administration is applying political solutions to economic and financial problems, thereby compounding them; in addition an increase in taxes, costs for medical care, and charges such as the proposed cap and trade system to address global warming are, regardless of the validity of the underlying ideology or objective, nothing less than economic madness.
 

 

The Rules of Capitalism Are Being Changed To As Great Or Greater Extent Than During the Great Depression - The Result Of The Financial Crisis And The Reactions To The Financial Crisis Will Be A Lower Standard Of Living And A Weaker Superpower

The key to the future is the value of the US dollar.

The United States has abused its status as provider of the reserve currency for the world, incurring trade and fiscal deficits that would not have been allowed by the international financial community if it were not for the lack of an alternative for the dollar.

The Obama administration has taken a bad situation and made it obviously worse to the point that the global financial community WILL find, and is now trying to find, an alternative to the dollar. It will take years, but the result will be an incredible inflation and a significant reduction in wealth of those holding dollars as all the dollars that were created and have gone overseas come back home.

Regulation will increase as will direct governmental involvement in business.

It will require years and probably decades to recover from the combined effects of mania, bubble, crash, and governmental regulation.

I will be discussing how you can profit from these trends.

 

The Objectives of This Web Site Are To Discuss The Economic And Market Implications Of The Mania/Bubble, Crash, and Their Aftermaths

Every week I will post a public commentary on the economy and the markets

Past commentaries will be publicly available

This web site is not for those seeking simple solutions to movements in the markets and in the economy. There are none. This web site is intended for those who will think about the myriad, complex forces that came together to create this crisis, and to understand why it was inevitable. And to think about the implications of this crisis, which will profoundly change the way America governs itself and will profoundly change the rules of capitalism for at least decades into the future. America will become poorer and weaker as a result of the mania, crisis and response to the crisis.

There is financial opportunity in crisis.

I will use a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and human psychology with which to probe both the past and the future, explaining my decisions along the way. This will enable you to combine my thoughts with thoughts of others whose opinions you value and to make your own decisions.

Learn more by clicking here.

 

 

 

Trade recommendations,

May 22, 2013
 

Short term

Medium and long terms

 

 

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Changes

Changes

in stops

in stops

   

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Posting Headline

Wednesday's update

Retracement began right on time
Tuesday's update Nothing to do but watch and wait
Monday's update Onward and upward - but we need a down-up sequence to finish this move up

Saturday's analyses

Onward and upward - for at least a day or two
Thursday's update No evidence the move up iis over
Fundamental problems My list of long term issues we have to face

 

 

Continuing themes (from September 2010):

  • The US stock market is completing a bear market rally
  • The Fed has run out of bullets - interest rates will be under upward pressure. Quantitative easing has become counterproductive, geopolitically.
  • Ireland and the PIGS are under stress - the euro may incur another crisis
  • China's economy is under inflationary stress
  • The Republicans will be going after the Fed, for better and for worse affecting Bernanke's ability to act unilaterally
  • The devastation in state and local governmental budgets is just now beginning.
  • Housing will make a double dip

Themes that have played themselves out as forecasted:

    Obama will likely agree to extension of the Bush tax cuts, including, probably temporarily, cuts for the 'rich.' This will prevent a certain recession if the tax cuts were not renewed, but will exacerbate the budget deficit.

    Contrary to all expectations, the dollar may have bottomed, setting the stage for a multi-month rally

     

 

 

Now

Deflation / debt destruction -
hold dollars

Later

Inflation -  hold hard assets

 

 

Wednesday's update

May 8, 2013

 

 

The down/up sequence I have been discussion began today, right on time from a short-term cycle perspective. It looks like this move will be dramatic, but the way to bet is yet one more, new high..

Just for the hell of it, let's begin a countdown to the top on June 6, D-Day, plus or minus two working days. And we will begin to think about a target price once this move down is completed.

There is a possibility that the top is in, but we won't be able to verify that for many points down, yet.

 

 

Tuesday's update

May 21, 2013

 

 

Nothing to do but watch and wait. For what it's worth, a short term cycle peaks tomorrow.

 

 

Monday's Update

May 20, 2013

 

 

 

This move up needs another down-up sequence.

 

 

Weekly Update

May 18, 2013

 

 

Succinct summaries of the week

10 Perspectives Into The Slow, Agonizing Death Of The American Worker

Gold, the dollar, bonds and the stock market

 

 

I will be traveling for the next few days, so updates may be summary and late. However, I will continue to monitor and communicate regarding the gold trade.

 

 

Succinct summaries of the week

 

Ritholtz

 

Positives:

1. The S&P 500 and Dow continue to hit new all-time highs.
2. Nikkei rises above 15,000 for the first time since Jan 2009.
3. U.S. retail sales grow 0.1% v expectations of -0.4%; Excluding autos and gas climbs by 0.6% v expectations of +0.3%.
4. Japan Q1 GDP increases by 3.5% v expectations of 2.7% (Abenomics is working)
5. The Dow has been up for 18 consecutive Tuesdays, something that has never happened before.
6. NFIB small business optimism rises to 92.1 (expectations of 90.5).
7. U.S Import price index for April fell by 0.5%, in line with expectations.
8. PPI M/M -0.7%, EXP -0.6%, PREV -0.6%, ex food and energy +0.1% in line
9. April CPI comes in at -0.4% v expectations of -0.3%. Ex-food and energy 0.1%

Negatives:

1. U.S. jobless claims increased by 32k to 360k v expectations of 330k.
2. Housing starts fall to 853k v expectations of 970k. This 16.5% drop is the largest one month decline since 2011 (1994 before that).
3. Multi-family housing starts fell 39%.
4. Empire Fed Manufacturing survey slides to -1.43 v expectations of +4, 3.05 in April
5. Empire manufacturing new orders -12 vs 2.2 and em ployment 5.7 v 6.8
6. April Industrial Production fell by 0.5% v expectations of -0.2%.
7. Philly Fed Manufacturing tumbles to -5.2 v expectations of -2.

 

Zero Hedge

 

Positives

  1. April retail sales up .1%, although gasoline sales fall hard
  2. S&P continues to hit all-time highs as credit plunges
  3. Gold shorts at all-time highs, must be bullish…
  4. Japanese institutions heart European debt
  5. Nasdaq breaks through 3,000 for the first time since 2000. 2000, what was happening in 2000?
  6. Oh-Em-Gee does David Tepper love stocks, and the Fed
  7. And Tuesday makes 18 -- Dow finishes green on Tuesday for 18th consecutive time
  8. Everyone calm down, Kuroda confirms the Nikkei is not in bubble formation. As the smart folks say, "driven by fundamentals"
  9. Ramp: ON -- equities continue to soar, PM's getting slammed, TSY yields tick up, and VIX stays asleep
  10. You ask for miracles Theo, I give you A.B.E.! Japan's Q1 GDP beats expectations
  11. Umich Confidence surges to its highest since August 2007

Negatives

  1. JGB futures halted, again
  2. No more POMO? Hilsy opines…
  3. Industrial production drops in April, misses estimates
  4. PPI drops, & the Empire Fed is just ugly
  5. Europe Q1 GDP confirms that you should load up on as much European debt as possible, as it is mired in recession
  6. Heads Up: Auto loan delinquency balances rise 23.9% YoY
  7. Is the market just being driven by short covering? Hint: Yes. But don't just take our word for it
  8. Wal-Mart customers apparently unaware there is a ripping bull market. Q1 disappoints, and guides lower
  9. Philly Fed mfg outlook for May collapses
  10. More Macro-tourist nonsense to be ignored: initial claims, housing starts, cpi all dismal

 

Additional

Worth a watch: dusting off the Michael Burry speech

 

 

10 Perspectives Into The Slow, Agonizing Death Of The American Worker

 

  

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

The middle class American worker is in danger of becoming an endangered species.  The politicians are not telling you the truth, and the mainstream media is certainly not telling you the truth, but the reality is that there is nothing but bad news on the horizon for workers in the United States.  In the old days, when the big corporations that dominate our society did well, that also meant good things for American workers since those corporations would need more of us to work for them.  But in the emerging one world economic system that our economy is being merged into, those corporations have other choices now.

For instance, the big corporations can now choose to limit the number of "expensive" American workers that they employ by shipping millions of jobs to the other side of the world.  And from their perspective, it makes perfect sense.  They can make much bigger profits by hiring people on the other side of the planet to work for them for less than a dollar an hour.  If they can get good production out of those people, then why should they hire Americans for ten to twenty times as much, plus have to give those Americans health insurance and other benefits? 

Another major factor in the slow, agonizing death of the American worker is technology.  We live during a period when technology is advancing at a pace that is almost unimaginable at the same time that it is steadily becoming cheaper and cheaper.  That means that it is going to become easier and easier for companies to replace workers with robots and computers.  As I have written about previously, it is being projected that our economy will lose millions of jobs to technology in the coming years.  Yes, some of us will still be needed to help build the robots and the computers, but not all of us will.  And of course the overall general weakness of the economy is not helping matters either. 

The American people inherited the greatest economic machine in the history of the world, and we have wrecked it.  Decades of very foolish decisions have resulted in the period of steady economic decline that we are experiencing now.

America is simply not the economic powerhouse that it once was.  Back in 2001, the U.S. economy accounted for 31.8 percent of global GDP.  By 2011, the U.S. economy only accounted for 21.6 percent of global GDP.  That is a collapse any way that you want to look at it.

Today, American workers are living in an economy that is rapidly declining, and their jobs are steadily being stolen by robots, computers and foreign workers that live in countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages.  Politicians from both political parties refuse to do anything to stop the bleeding because they think that the status quo is working just great.

So don't expect things to get better any time soon.

The following are 10 amazing charts that demonstrate the slow, agonizing death of the American worker...

#1 Wages And Salaries As A Percentage Of GDP

Wages And Salaries As A Percentage Of GDP

As you can see, wages as a percentage of GDP are hovering near an all-time record low.  That means that American workers are bringing home a smaller share of the economic pie than ever before.

#2 Average Annual Hours Worked Per Employed Person In The United States

Average Annual Hours Worked per Employed
Person in the United States

We are an economy that is rapidly trading good paying full-time jobs for low paying part-time jobs.  The decline in average annual hours worked that we have witnessed represents the equivalent of losing millions of jobs.  There has been an explosion of "the working poor" in the United States, and this trend is probably only going to accelerate in the years to come.

#3 Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing Employment

As you can see, there are less Americans working in manufacturing today than there was in 1950 even though the population of the country has more than doubled since then.  The United States has lost more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities since 2001, and yet our politicians stand around and do nothing about it.

#4 Employment-Population Ratio

Employment-Population Ratio 2013

This is one of my favorite charts.  It shows that there has been absolutely no employment recovery at all since the end of the last recession.  The percentage of working age Americans that have a job has stayed under 59 percent for 44 months in a row.  How much worse will things get when the next major economic downturn strikes?

#5 Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation Rate

This is how the Obama administration is getting the "unemployment rate" to magically go down.  They are pretending that millions upon millions of Americans simply do not want to work anymore.  As you will notice, the decline of the labor force participation rate has accelerated greatly since Barack Obama entered the White House.

#6 Duration Of Unemployment

Duration Of Unemployment

The average amount of time that it takes an unemployed worker to find a new job has declined slightly, but it is still far above normal historical levels.  It is a crying shame that it takes the average unemployed worker two-thirds of a year to find a new job, but this is the new economic reality that we are all living in.

#7 Delinquency Rate On Residential Mortgages

Delinquency Rate On Residential Mortgages

Since there are not enough jobs for all of us, and since our wages are not rising as rapidly as the cost of living is, a whole bunch of us are falling behind on our mortgages.  As you can see, the mortgage delinquency rate has only dropped slightly and is still way, way above typical levels.

#8 New Homes Sold

New Homes Sold

American workers also don't have enough money to go out and buy new homes either.  Yes, new home sales have rebounded slightly this year, but we are nowhere near where we used to be.

#9 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit

Millions of American families continue to resort to going into debt in a desperate attempt to make ends meet.  After a slight interruption during the last recession, consumer credit once again is growing at a frightening pace.

#10 Self-Employment At A Record Low

Self-Employed As A Share Of Non-Farm Employment

Since there aren't enough jobs for everyone, why aren't more Americans trying to start their own businesses?  Well, the reality of the matter is that the government has made it exceedingly difficult to start your own business today.  Taxes, rules, regulations and red tape are choking the life out of millions of small businesses in the United States.  As a result, the percentage of self-employed Americans is at a record low.

As all of these long-term trends continue, the middle class will continue to shrink, poverty in America will continue to explode and government dependence will continue to rise.

The numbers don't lie.  Today, the number of Americans on Social Security Disability now exceeds the entire population of Greece, and the number of Americans on food stamps now exceedsthe entire population of Spain.

We are in the midst of a horrifying economic collapse, and the next major wave of that collapse is rapidly approaching.

 

 

Gold, the dollar, bonds and the stock market

 

 

We are still going up, at least for a couple of days. This is what a melt-up looks like.

The dollar and gold are doing pretty much what I thought they would be doing. Time for the dollar to rest for a little while before continuing on up in a major bull market.

Gold should continue on down for a while, but could have a major rally coming up. I think gold is in a bear market in the medium term

Bonds should now head back up.

 

 

 

Thursday's update

May 16, 2013

 

 

I will be traveling for the next few days, so updates may be summary and late. However, I will continue to monitor and communicate regarding the gold trade.

 

 

There is no evidence that the top is in.

 

 

Fundamental problems

 

(First written in September 2009; updated with EPA bullet point in December 2009; China and Europe points added in May 2010)

 

 

The primary, fundamental issues with the economy are as follows, in no particular order:

  • The huge, unprecedented debt at all levels of the economy has not been dealt with
  • The huge, unprecedented fiscal deficits will ensure economic havoc for a long time to come. Higher taxes, for sure, which will retard economic growth, but also higher interest rates on the debt, driving up interest rates in the economy and retarding economic growth.
  • The unprecedented creation of dollars will inevitably lead to inflation (but not any time soon) unless the Fed acts to take those dollars out of circulation. When the dollars are taken out of circulation, the effect on the economy will be negative.
  • The consumer will be hampered in their ability to participate in the economy due to the amount of debt they have, the lack of availability of additional credit, and the high and increasing rate of unemployment.
  • The toxic assets on the balance sheets of the banks have not been dealt with and are continuing to constipate the financial system.
  • The federal government is toying with protectionism, most blatantly in the stimulus bill with its ";buy American;" provisions and also with its levying of a senseless tire duty on China.
  • The current administration has taken a radical turn toward increasing the size and influence of central government in all aspects of the economy, particularly energy and health care. Regardless of the merits of the case, these steps will inevitably have negative effects on the economy.
  • The Environmental Protection Agency has declared greenhouse gasses to be a danger to human health. Unless the Congress acts, this will profoundly affect the price, regulation, and availability of literally every good and service. (Some in Congress are attempting to reverse this ruling.)
  • Losses on commercial real estate loans are just now being incurred and will become worse
  • Interest rates on Alt-A and Option-ARMs on a significant amount of residential real estate will be reset in 2010 and 2011.
  • Once economic growth begins, or perhaps even if it does not return, the price of oil, after declining, will increase again to new highs, having a negative impact on the economy.
  • Our energy security, and therefore economic security, is very tenuous and dependent on hostile and remote nations.
  • Social Security and particularly Medicare will continue to exert negative economic pressure.
  • The war in Afghanistan is beginning to look like a bottomless pit
  • The Chinese economy is unstable. Not only is it dependent on the US and Europe to purchase its goods, it also has a real estate bubble and an impressive amount of toxic assets on its banks' books. If China's internal problems become sufficiently severe, it will be less willing to fund the US fiscal deficit. In addition, China is adopting protectionist laws regarding the purchase of China-first materials.
  • Europe's banking system in general is more highly leveraged than the US banking system and therefore less able to withstand an economic downturn. The combination of toxic assets and non-performing sovereign debt will freeze up the European banking system, creating a significant credit crisis. In addition, the austerity measures taken or to be taken by the PIIGS will reduce intra-European trade and reduce prospects for economic growth across Europe.

    All-in-all the outlook for the US economy is not promising in time frames of a decade or more.



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